1 Shaktill

Weather Research Paper

Chapter

The Creation of Weather

The Source of Weather

The Sun

The Sun, apparently active for the past 4.6 billion years, is responsible not only for the existence of weather, but for the mere existence of life on Earth. The main [...]

Structure of the Sun

The sun is structured in five zones or layers, which ordered from in-to-out, are: The core – it has an estimated temperature of 27 million Fahrenheit degrees (14 million Celsius degrees) [...]

Radiation

Radiation is an important factor in the process of turning solar energy into weather. Generally speaking, it is defined as energy that is transmitted in the form of rays, waves [...]

Solar Wind

Solar wind is a stream of particles (mostly high-energy protons) which are ejected from the upper atmosphere of the Sun and move radially from it. The Sun's atmosphere is a [...]

The Earth

In the Solar System, the Earth is the third planet of eight considering its distance from the Sun. It is one of the smallest, with a radius of about 3.945 [...]

Structure of the Earth

The story starts five billion years ago, when the immense amount of caloric energy generated by a high-velocity bombardment of meteorites and comets melted the entire planet. Different processes led to [...]

Rotation

Earth's rotation can be defined as the rotatory motion of the Earth with respect to its center of mass. While traveling around the Sun, our planet is spinning west to [...]

Revolution

Revolution is defined as the rotatory motion of a celestial body around another. The complete revolution of the Earth’s orbit around the sun takes 365 ¼ days, which explains the [...]

Tilt

The Earth’s tilt is the angle at which the Earth’s axis is leaning with respect to the Sun. The Earth’s axis is not perpendicular to its orbital plane: it [...]

Magnetic Field

It is defined as a magnetic shell that surrounds the planet. It is asymmetrically shaped, as it is delimited by the pressure of the solar wind, in the direction of [...]

Van Allen Belts

The Van Allen Belts were discovered in the late 1950s, and surround the Earth representing two regions of a particularly high concentration of charged particles. The inner belt occupies a [...]

The Atmosphere

The atmosphere is the gaseous area –the whole mass of aeriform fluid- that surrounds the planet, which controls the climate and ultimately determines the quality of life on Earth.

Where action takes place...

The atmosphere is made of: oxygen ozone water vapor nitrogen noble gases visible and non visible solid particles Oxygen and nitrogen constitute about 99 percent of it. Water vapor in humid regions can occupy up to 3% [...]

Depth and Structure

The atmosphere is structured in five concentric spherical thermal layers or "-spheres", separated by narrow transition zones or "-pauses-". The upper boundary at which gases merge into space lies at [...]

Absorption and Reflection

Absorption and reflection are two of the processes that occur to solar radiation as it passes through the atmosphere; solar radiation is modified due to its interaction with gases and [...]

The Weather Builders

Moisture, Pressure & Temperature Control the Air

These three physical properties, pressure, temperature and humidity, are basic weather builders, determining by themselves and by their interaction how air is going to behave. Changes in moisture, pressure and [...]

Atmospheric pressure

The atmospheric pressure is the force exerted on any point of Earth’s surface by the weight of the column of air above it. Air molecules have volume, weight, mass and [...]

Temperature

When heat enters a substance, energy comes into it as well. That energy can be used to increase the rate of movement (kinetic energy) of the molecules, which would cause [...]

Humidity

Life in the planet is possible because of the presence of water. Air contains moisture, that is, water vapor, which absorbs energy very well and prevents Earth’s heat from escaping [...]

Air Masses (upper level)

Knowing about air masses provides interesting information about the kind of weather to expect. An air mass can be defined as a large body of air that has relatively uniform characteristics, [...]

Types of Air Masses

According to the source region, air masses are classified as: P – Polar Air Masses, originated in polar latitudes, located pole-ward of 60 degrees north and south. T – Tropical Air Masses, [...]

Pressure Systems (upper level)

Air pressure is a measure (in millibars) of the force exerted by air on every point of Earth’s surface. The concept of pressure system refers to a region of the [...]

Basic concepts

Pressure system: “individual cyclonic-scale feature of atmospheric circulation commonly used to denote either a high or a low, less commonly a ridge or trough”. Cyclone - also named as depression, or [...]

Internal dynamic of highs and lows

Air rotates around highs in an anticyclonic (clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) direction while spiraling outward from the high pressure center. Such spreading out of the air is known as [...]

Semipermanent Highs and Lows

They are areas of high pressure (anticyclones) and low pressure (cyclones) that tend to persist at a particular latitude belt throughout the year, averaged over long periods of time. Semi-permanent [...]

Creation of fronts

A front is the relatively sudden transition zone between air masses. Fronts are not permanent features; they form and intensify in a process known as frontogenesis. The arrival of a new [...]

Troughs & Ridges

A ridge is an axis or line of high atmospheric pressure, depicted on a weather map as a rise in an isobar; a system of nearly parallel isobars, approximately u-shaped, [...]

Circulation Cells

Back in the 1680s, Edmond Halley (1656-1742), discovered the key element of the planet’s global circulation: warm air near the equator rises, it flows out toward the poles at high [...]

Coriolis Force

It is an apparent force, due to the rotation of the Earth, which acts normal to, and to the right of the velocity of a moving particle in the Northern [...]

Prevailing Westerlies

The Westerlies are global-scale, dominant mid-latitude winds that blow from the subtropical high pressure belt toward the polar front. They come from the west, which characterize the mid-latitudes both north [...]

Jet Stream

The jet stream is a flat tubular quasi-horizontal current of air, generally near the tropopause, whose axis is along a line of maximum speed and which is characterized by strong [...]

Ocean Currents

An ocean current can be defined as a horizontal movement of seawater at the ocean's surface. Ocean currents are driven by the circulation of wind above surface waters. The surface layer [...]

The Elements

Precipitation

Precipitation is any form of water falling from the atmosphere to the Earth’s surface. It is the process by which atmospheric water becomes surface, or subsurface water. The term "precipitation" [...]

How do droplets form?

Water is available on the Earth in the following three forms: vapor, liquid and solid. A phase change (water changing from one state to another) is possible only if heat [...]

Formation Models of Precipitation

Most clouds do not precipitate. In fact, most water droplets in clouds have such a small size that they do not fall to the surface. There are two models, developed by [...]

Forms of precipitation

We have stated that, from a meteorological point of view, precipitation is water in some form, falling out of the air, and settling on the surface of the Earth. We [...]

Precipitation Measurement

Precipitation quantity or precipitation amount is the depth of water in any of its forms (rain, snow, etc.) that has fallen over a given period; it is measured in a [...]

Cloud Seeding

Cloud seeding is a form of weather modification. It can be used to disperse fog, suppress hail, or control winds, but it is most often used to increase precipitation. Cloud seeding [...]

Clouds

A cloud is a hydrometeor, seen as an aggregate of minute particles of liquid water or ice, or of both, suspended in the free air, usually not touching the ground. [...]

Formation of clouds

Clouds are created by condensation or deposition of water above the Earth's surface. In general, any air mass that becomes saturated (relative humidity becomes 100%) develops clouds. Saturation can occur due to: cooling moisture gain (from Earth´s surface [...]

Classification of clouds

Clouds are classified according to appearance and height. Based on appearance, there are two major types: Clouds of vertical development, cumuliform, formed by the condensation of rising unstable air –heaped clouds-. Clouds that [...]

Winds (mainly surface)

Wind: air in motion relative to the surface of the Earth. Vertical components of atmospheric motion are relatively small, so the term is used to denote almost exclusively the horizontal [...]

Formation of winds

Different forces acting in the atmosphere are involved in wind formation: Gravity - makes cold dense air to sink and when it impacts on the ground, it spreads horizontally. Pressure - differences [...]

Types of winds

There are different types of winds: Light air: Light air in the Beaufort wind scale is a wind with a speed from 1 to 3 knots (1 to 3 MPH or 2 [...]

Measurements

Beaufort wind scale: - A system of estimating and reporting wind speeds using a numerical scale ranging from 0 (calm) to 12 (hurricane). - The purpose for this system was to allow [...]

The Effects (mainly Surface Weather)

Fronts

Fronts are the narrow zone of division between air masses of differing characteristics (temperature and humidity). They form where two large air masses collide at the Earth's surface. Two air masses [...]

Types of fronts

Cold front: Occurs when a dense cold air mass moves towards an area of warmer weather; cold air displaces lighter warmer air, pushing it upward; the front is the leading edge [...]

Highs & Lows

High: an area of the atmosphere where the pressure is high relative to that in the surrounding region at the same level. It is always associated with anti-cyclonic circulation (clockwise [...]

Air flow and circulation

The pressure is high at the surface where air is slowly descending. In fact, a high is an area of sinking air. As air descends, it warms, which inhibits the [...]

Storm Track

It is the path followed by a cyclonic disturbance, for example, a center of low atmospheric pressure, a severe thunderstorm, or a tornado. It also roughly corresponds to the mean trajectory [...]

Storms

Storms are organized areas of disturbed weather, especially those affecting the Earth's surface, implying inclement and possibly destructive weather. They can be considered: As a complex of pressure, wind, clouds, precipitation, etc. [...]

Types of storms

Thunderstorm A thunderstorm is a local storm, invariably produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and always accompanied by lightning and thunder, usually with strong gusts of wind, heavy rain, and sometimes with [...]

Tropical Cyclones

It is any cyclone of non frontal synoptic scale, originated over tropical or subtropical waters, that presents an organized convection and a cyclonic circulation characterized by surface winds. Being one of [...]

Favorable conditions for formation of fronts

Warm ocean waters (at least 80°F or 26.5°C). An atmosphere potentially unstable to moist convection. Thunderstorm activity. Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere. A minimum distance of at least 300 mi (500 km) from [...]

Characteristics of a Tropical Cyclone

The surface winds spiral inward cyclonically, becoming almost circular near the center. The cloud and rain patterns are distinctive in each storm. Spiral bands in the outer vortex. Most intense rain and winds [...]

Classification of Tropical Cyclones

Tropical disturbance: light surface winds with indications of cyclonic circulation. Tropical depression: a closed wind circulation and maximum sustained speed of 23-39 MPH (37 to 62 KPH) surface winds. Tropical storm: cyclone [...]

Hurricanes and Typhoons

A hurricane is a very severe tropical cyclone. Characteristics: A diameter of 310 miles (500 km). Winds of 75 MPH (118 KPH) or more. Winds blow drawing a large spiral around a center of [...]

Storm Surge

Rise and onshore surge of seawater as the result of the winds of a storm, and secondarily of the surface pressure drop near the storm’s center. Large crest of water, 50 [...]

Floods & Droughts

The extremes of flood and drought occur within the context of climate, a context that is both local and global. The cadence of wet and dry years is difficult to [...]

Floods - causes, types and effects

Flood is the overflowing of the normal confines of a body of water, usually a stream, or the accumulation of water over areas that are not normally submerged. During the past [...]

Droughts - causes, types and effects

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. It can be defined as a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of [...]

Related phenomena: El Niño and La Niña

These ocean-atmospheric systems responsible for noticeable cyclical changes in the temperature of water surface in the Pacific Ocean are the kind of event that can change the location of areas [...]

Celestial Phenomena

Celestial Phenomena

Near sunrise and sunset, in a clear day, the sky can adopt a particularly beautiful coloration. Virtually every color of the spectrum shows up at these times of the day [...]

Types of celestial phenomena

Different types of celestial phenomena: Rainbow Rainbows are colored, circular (or nearly circular) concentric arcs, ranging from violet to red, formed by refraction or diffraction of solar or moon light on water [...]

Chapter

The Climates of the World

Climate Changes

Future Climate

A great number of scientists that gather climate data, use computer models to simulate future climate, and not surprisingly, they do not agree on what is coming ahead. Climate change is [...]

The Ozone Hole

The Ozone Hole is a characteristic severe depletion of stratospheric ozone that occurs each spring over the Antarctic continent. Although it is known as the Ozone Hole, “hole” gives the [...]

The Greenhouse Effect

There are certain gases in the atmosphere, called greenhouse gases, which permit the income of solar radiation but restrict the outward flow of infrared radiation, storing the heat by absorbing [...]

Air pollution

Air pollution is defined as the presence of substances in the atmosphere, generally contaminants, particularly those that do not occur naturally (anthropogenic air pollution), that substantially alter or degrade the [...]

International initiatives

International Initiatives regarding Future Climate: The creation (in 1988) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a proof of the international concern on future climate. The reports produced by this [...]

Recording Climate Changes

Having enough and accurate information about climate in the past, and the constant changes it has been undergoing, is a real challenge for scientists, as it cannot be done directly, [...]

Recording methods

Recording climate change methods: Tree rings - In a horizontal cross section cut from a tree trunk, variable width of rings are observed; these were produced by seasonal growth. The combination [...]

Through Time & Its Reasons

Change is the only constant. It has been going on in the planet for an estimated 4.5 billion years, since its creation.

Climate Change

Climate change is any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (e.g. temperature, winds, atmospheric pressure) which is persistent over several decades or more. In a timeframe, there is a [...]

Causes of Climate Change

Ice Ages Astronomical perturbations Geological perturbations Ocean Conveyor Belt Human activities 1. Ice Ages Let’s draw an imaginary time line and try to situate the different events of the planet’s history, from more than 120 million [...]

Climate Zones

Climate Zones around the World

Climatic classification is the division of the Earth's climates into a worldwide system of contiguous regions; each one of them is characterized by a relative homogeneity of the climatic elements, [...]

Classification of climate zones

Tropical Humid Climates (A): Location: on or near the Equator, as the Amazon Basin in South America, central Africa and Southeast Asia. Classification Criteria: 1) the mean temperature of the coldest [...]

Regions

While climate classification can tell us what is expected in a given location, averaged over a lengthy period of time, the following flashes suggest how the weather evolves in a [...]

Difference between Climate & Weather

Weather and climate are not the same, and they should not be confused. Definition of Weather: state or condition of the atmosphere at a given place at a particular time, as [...]

Geographical & Seasonal Variances

Geographical & Seasonal Variances

In the evaluation of natural climate variability (geographical and seasonal) some factors stand out because of their impact on global climate: “El Niño” and its counterpart “La Niña”, Monsoon circulations [...]

El Niño and La Niña

Although its history goes back at least to the year 1500, it was not until the late 90s when most people around the world had heard about the existence of [...]

Monsoons

Monsoon: seasonal wind, actually a global scale seasonal thermal direct circulation caused by the configuration of land and ocean, in southern Asia and some other locations in the world. This winds, [...]

Ocean Currents

Ocean current: movement of ocean water characterized by regularity, either of a cyclical nature or, more commonly, a continuous stream flowing along a definable path. The major ocean currents are [...]

Chapter

Weather Forecasting

Weather Forecasting

Areas of Forecasting

Every morning, millions of people around the world, are curious about what the weather will be like that day. Depending on where you live and what you do, the weather [...]

Most common areas of weather forecasting

The most common areas of weather forecasting are: Agricultural Forecasts: For a farmer, the information included in a regular forecast (temperature, humidity, cloud cover, probability of precipitation) is not enough. Apart from [...]

Data Gathering

Meteorologists use a variety of tools to help them gather information about weather and climate. Some of these tools allow meteorologists to gather data about what is happening near Earth's [...]

What is a weather forecast?

A Weather Forecast is a deterministic or probabilistic statement of expected meteorological conditions for a specific period and for a specific area or portion of air space. It is [...]

Instruments

There are a few properties of the atmosphere which are key elements for weather determination: temperature, humidity and air pressure. A set of tools or instruments have been created -some [...]

Distribution

The demand for customized forecasts has been growing steadily. Commercial meteorological companies offer a wide variety of tailored forecasts for specific applications. Among these special applications are forecasts produced for [...]

Newspapers

Weather information started to be available for the masses when in the late 1800s, the New York Times began publishing a small section that summarized the previous day’s weather and [...]

Radio

In 1922, the first radio broadcasted weather forecast went on air, transmitted by the BBC; short time after, hundreds of radios around the world were broadcasting weather information. Radio stations are [...]

Television

With pioneer attempts in 1936 and 1941, television exploded in the 1950s, and weather forecasts became part of the daily broadcast. The first “weatherperson” was a cartoon, and then this [...]

Internet

The Internet is a mechanism for world-wide information dissemination, in every term. It presents both a challenge and opportunity for weather forecast companies. It has limitations: It is not a good medium [...]

Cell Phones

The latest technological advances allowed the existence of this new source of weather information distribution; there are many companies around the world offering this service on your cell phone. This [...]

Interpretation

The elaboration of a weather forecast is no easy task. It is quite obvious that the atmosphere is highly complex place, a space lacking in linear behavior. The latest technological [...]

Forecast elaboration process

The elaboration of a weather forecast is no easy task. It is quite obvious that the atmosphere is a highly complex place, a space lacking in linear behavior. Forecast elaboration process: Weather [...]

A bit of history...

The bases for modern weather prediction were founded by the scientists from late 1600s into the 1800s. Among others, Newton and Boyle announced the basic rules that control the expansion [...]

Supercomputers

Practically every country in the world has its own national weather service, but not many have full-blown global weather models, focused at a single location where supercomputers are present. Supercomputers [...]

Basic forecasted elements

Temperature: the quantity measured by a thermometer, expressed in degrees, Celsius, Kelvin or Fahrenheit, according to the scale. In a weather forecast, low and high temperatures are indicated. In a [...]

Short and Long Range forecasts

There is a spectrum of outlooks that extend from one or two hours to a year or more ahead. The most common types are: nowcasts, short, medium and long-range forecasts. Nowcasts [...]

Chaos Theory and Butterfly Effect

Edward Norton Lorenz, an American pioneer in the chaos theory says that every improvement in the understanding and processing of meteorological data can make weather forecast more accurate, but only [...]

Dangerous weather

One of the main responsibilities of the National Weather Services around the world is to warn the public about hazardous weather conditions, such as floods, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, snow and [...]

Maps & Symbols

A weather map is a graphical representation of relevant meteorological information. The weather map that we see on a newspaper or on TV is quite different from a technical synoptic [...]

Weather Maps

It is considered a weather map, any graphical display of the distribution of meteorological data over a given area. Also called synoptic charts or weather charts, they are geographical maps on [...]

Weather Icons and Symbols

Symbols and icons are not the same. On a weather map we may find both coexisting. An icon is a sign which refers to the object that it denotes merely by [...]

How to read a weather map...

The features that appear on a typical weather map (which represents surface weather) are: High and Low Pressure Areas - designated by a capital and large blue H or red L, [...]

Chapter

Weather Trivia

History of Meteorology

History of Meteorology

Humankind has been always fascinated by celestial phenomena, and observed them since the beginning of times. Meteorology, as a “branch of knowledge” started virtually when early men look up to [...]

Chronological review

From those beginning of orally transmitted knowledge to the latest satellite images, many fundamental events took place. Here there are many of the most transcendent ones, in a chronological order: C1060 [...]

Weather Extremes

Major Disasters

Extremes in weather such as floods, droughts, storms and other extreme weather events are part of the natural variability in climate. Extreme weather: weather phenomena that are at the extremes of [...]

World Weather Disasters

Hereunder, there is a quite vast list of world weather disasters, according to different criteria, being the main three the number of fatalities, economical losses and peculiarity of the phenomena [...]

Records

Weather extremes are the highest and, in some cases, the lowest value of a climatic element (typically temperature and precipitation) observed during a given interval or during a given month [...]

World Weather Records

Highest temperature: 136º F (57.8º C), El Azizia, Libya, on Sept. 13, 1922. Highest average annual mean temperature: 94º F (34.4º C), in Dallol, Ethiopia. Hottest summer average in Western Hemisphere: 98º [...]

Weather Safety & Health

Illnesses related to weather:

There are a number of illnesses whose appearance and development are related to weather elements. Colds, allergies, heat and cold-related illnesses as well as S.A.D. and skin cancer are some [...]

Colds and Influenza Virus

Colds and the influenza virus (commonly named as flu) are usually related to autumn and winter; they are linked to cold weather or to sudden temperature changes. These are two [...]

Allergies

Allergies - Symptoms of seasonal allergic rhinitis: sneezing watery eyes runny noses congestion and itchiness in the nose, roof of mouth, throat, eyes and ears. Allergic rhinitis or hay fever, are triggered by allergens, substances that [...]

Heat-related illnesses

Heat-Related Illnesses- Extreme heat can kill by taxing the human body beyond its abilities to shed heat by circulation and sweating. When this happens, heat-related illness may develop. These include: Heat [...]

Cold-related illnesses

Cold related illnesses: When exposed to cold temperatures or a cool, damp environment for prolonged periods, your body's control mechanisms may fail to keep your body temperature normal. Cold weather can [...]

Skin cancer and other UV related disorders

Skin cancer: It is the most common form of human cancer. Since the 80's, we have become aware of the health threats posed by ozone depletion, which decreases our atmosphere's natural protection [...]

Seasonal Affective Disorder

The end of long sunny days, bright colors and green leaves, the arrival of cold blasts of wind and snow produce in some people depressing thoughts, which are a possible [...]

Precautions to take during:

In hazardous weather conditions, taking precautions and safety actions is key to prevent people from dying or getting seriously hurt. The first safety tip is not to underestimate the power [...]

In case of thunderstorm and lightning

You should... Monitor the radio, listening for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings. Go to a small interior room on the lowest floor of your residence, school or office. Stay away from windows. If time [...]

In case of tornadoes...

At home: You should have an identified place to take shelter (underground area –basement- otherwise, an interior room). Stay away from windows. You should have an emergency alert weather radio, if available in [...]

In case of Hurricanes...

You MUST stay away from the ocean during a hurricane warning or hurricane, so move on to land. If you live in an evacuation area, you should know your home’s susceptibility [...]

In case of Floods...

Stay away from areas subject to flooding: streams, creeks, and low areas. In urban areas, stay away from underpasses. Do not attempt to cross flooded areas in a car or truck: If [...]

In case of Rip Current...

Learn how to swim and know your ability to swim in ocean waters and strong currents. If possible, always swim at beaches staffed by lifeguards or beach patrols and heed their [...]

In case of Snowstorms...

Prepare a Winter Storm Plan: Have extra blankets at hand. Ensure that each member of your household has a warm coat, gloves or mittens, hat, and water-resistant boots. Assemble a Disaster Supplies Kit [...]

In case of Avalanche...

Learn to recognize avalanche terrain and heed avalanche warnings. Avoid these areas. Prepare to travel in a group at all times. Every member needs proper equipment including a checked transceiver, shovel [...]

Weather Tidbits

Non-Scientific Ways to predict Weather

People have been building their knowledge about weather since the beginning of time, basically through observation, until the arrival of modern technology. Scientific investigation allowed the production of forecasts with a [...]

Animal behavior

Animals respond to changes in the atmosphere (e.g.: a pressure drop), which take place before a change in weather occurs (e.g.: rain). Ants - when they move to higher ground, it [...]

Sayings and Proverbs

When looking at weather proverbs, once again we should keep in mind that they not based on scientific studies, but on someone´s observations; they can eventually have local value. For ages, [...]

Farmer's Almanac

The Farmer’s Almanac is a classic in many countries. Apart from providing a guide on planting and harvesting, it includes weather forecasts, especially long range weather forecast as Farmer’s Almanacs [...]

Weather Funnies

Almost every topic in life can be subject of jokes and funny stories. Weather is not the exception and neither are weathermen. In some countries, especially in regions of severe [...]

Weather Jokes

Some Weather Jokes: What did one tornado say to another? "Let's blow this town!" Did you hear about the weather forecaster who quit her job after making a wrong forecast? She said [...]

Funny Stories

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a new Indian [...]

These are informal research papers with SPC-affiliated lead authors, prepared for conferences of the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, or other professional organizations. Formal versions of some of these may appear as refereed papers in AMS, NWA, EJSSM, or other journals. Please check above.

Banacos, P.C.*, and D.M. Schultz, 2004: Moisture Flux Convergence: Its History and Application in Convective Initiation Forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2710K PDF]

Banacos, P.C.*, 2003: Short-range prediction of banded precipitation associated with deformation and frontogenesis forcing. Preprints, AMS 10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [642K PDF]

Banacos, P.C.*, and H.B. Bluestein, 2002: Hodograph Variability within Analytically Modeled Baroclinic Waves. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [357K PDF]

Bothwell, P.D.*, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, and J.S. Kain, 2014: Severe Weather Parameter Reanalysis Project at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [247K PDF]

Bothwell, P.D., J.A. Hart, and R.L. Thompson, 2002: An Integrated Three-Dimensional Objective Analysis Scheme in Use at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX, JP3.1.

Bright, D.R.*, and J.S. Grams, 2009: Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm Probability Forecasts: 2007-2008 Verification and Recent Enhancements. Preprints, 4th Conf. Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Phoenix, AZ. [293K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss, J.J. Levit*, and R.S. Schneider, 2008: The Evolution of Multi-Scale Ensemble Guidance in the Prediction of Convective and Severe Convective Storms at the Storm Prediction Center.Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [4524K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and R.H. Grumm, 2006: Application of Climate Statistics and Ensemble Forecasts in the Prediction of Severe Weather Episodes.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [358K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and M.S. Wandishin, 2006: Post Processed Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Convective Storms.Preprints, 18th Conf. Probability and Statistics in the Atmos. Sciences, Atlanta GA. [664K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell, and S.J. Weiss, 2005: A Physically Based Parameter for Lightning Prediction and its Calibration in Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, Conf. on Meteor. Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego CA. [2339K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss, J.J. Levit*, M.S. Wandishin, J.S. Kain, and D.J. Stensrud, 2004: Evaluation of Short-range Ensemble Forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [405K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and P.A. Nutter, 2004: On the Challenges of Identifying the "Best" Ensemble Member in Operational Forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA. [379K PDF]

Broyles, J.C., and K.C. Crosbie*, 2004: Evidence of Smaller Tornado Alleys Across the United States Based on a Long Track F3-F5 Tornado Climatology Study from 1880-2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2940K PDF]

Carbin, G.W.*, J.S. Kain, M.S. Bukovsky, and M.E. Baldwin, 2003: Mesoscale Processes Associated with the Rapid Erosion of the "Cap". Preprints, 10th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [854K PDF]

Cook, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [171K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F.*, M.C. Coniglio, and J.S. Kain, 2010: Environment and Early Evolution of the 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho".Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF] ( download presentation) or view (supplemental slide show)

Corfidi, S.F.*, and S.J. Corfidi*, 2006: Toward a Better Understanding of Elevated Convection.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [450K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F.*, J.J. Levit*, and S.J. Weiss, 2004: The Super Outbreak: Outbreak of the Century. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1869K PDF] (supplemental slide show)

Corfidi, S.F.*, D.A. Imy*, S.J. Taylor*, and A. Logan, 2004: A Preliminary Investigation of Derecho-producing MCSs in Environments of Very Low Dew Points. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [501K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F.*, 1998: Forecasting MCS Mode and Motion. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN. [39K HTML]

Corfidi, S.F.*, 1998 (updated 2007): Some Thoughts on the Role Mesoscale Features Played in the 27 May 1997 Central Texas (Jarrell) Tornado OutbreakPreprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [82K HTML]

Craven, J.P.*, H.E. Brooks and J.A. Hart, 2002: Baseline Climatology of Sounding Derived Parameters Associated with Deep, Moist Convection. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [131K PDF]

Darrow, M.A., and M.L. Rehbein*, 1996: A Preliminary Investigation of West Coast Convection during the Cool Season Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [70K HTML]

Davis, J.M.*, A.R. Dean, and J.L. Guyer, 2010: A Detailed Analysis of SPC "High Risk" Outlooks, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [138K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2012: An Examination of Tornado Environments, Events, and Impacts from 2003-2012.. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]

Dean, A.R., 2010: An Analysis of Clustered Tornado Events. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [928K PDF]

Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, R.L. Thompson, J.A. Hart, and P.D. Bothwell*, 2009: The Conditional Risk of Severe Convection Estimated from NWS Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Objective Analyses: Potential Uses in Support of Forecast Operations and Verification. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2008: Forecast Challenges at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Relating to the Frequency of Favorable Severe Storm Environments. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [950K PDF]

Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: Development of a Comprehensive Severe Weather Forecast Verification System at the Storm Prediction Center.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [191K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and D.A. Imy*, 2006: A Look at the Tornado Report and Watch Climatology for the Continental United States from 1986-2005.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [315K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: PDS Watches: How Dangerous are these "Particularly Dangerous Situations?"Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [123K PDF]

Dial, G.L., and J.P. Racy*, 2004: Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode and Evolution for Severe Storms Initiated along Synoptic Boundaries. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [104K PDF]

Edwards, R., and J.C. Picca, 2016: Tornadic Debris Signatures in Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1888K PDF]

Edwards, R., and G.W. Carbin*, 2016: Estimated Convective Winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe-Storm Climatology. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1458K PDF]

Edwards, R., B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson and A.R. Dean, 2015: Analyses of Radar Rotational Velocities and Environmental Parameters for Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 37th Conf. Radar Meteorology, Norman, OK. [1060K PDF]

Edwards, R., G.W. Carbin*, and S.F. Corfidi*, 2015: Overview of the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 13th History Symp., Phoenix, AZ. [832K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2014: Characteristics of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [1002K PDF]

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2014: Reversible CAPE in Tropical Cyclone Tornado Regimes. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [554K PDF]

Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2012: Nonsupercell Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Documentation, Classification and Uncertainties. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1278K PDF]

Edwards, R., J.G. LaDue, J.T. Ferree, K. Scharfenberg, C. Maier, and W.L. Coulbourne, 2010: The Enhanced Fujita Scale: Past, Present and Future. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Tornado Records for the Modernized NWS Era. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [416K PDF]

Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2010: Objective Environmental Analyses and Convective Modes for United States Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes from 2003-2008. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [369K PDF]

Edwards, R., and H.E. Brooks, 2010: Possible Impacts of the Enhanced Fujita Scale on United States Tornado Data. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2008: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes -- A Research and Forecasting Overview. Part 1: Climatologies, Distribution and Forecast concepts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [135K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2006: Supercells of the Serranias del Burro (Mexico). Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [290K PDF]

Edwards, R., and A.E. Pietrycha, 2006: Archetypes for Surface Baroclinic Boundaries Influencing Tropical Cyclone Tornado Occurrence.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [399K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: Assessment of Anticyclonic Supercell Environments Using Close Proximity Soundings from the RUC Model. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [151K PDF]

Edwards, R., and S.J. Hodanish, 2004: Environmental Analysis and Photographic Documentation of an Intense, Left-moving Supercell on the Colorado Plains. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [514K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson, K.C. Crosbie*, J.A. Hart, and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Proposals for Modernizing the Definitions of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [187K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2003: Rating Tornado Damage: An Exercise in Subjectivity. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA. [685K PDF]

Edwards, R., and L.R. Lemon*, 2002: Proactive or Reactive? The Severe Storm Threat to Large Event Venues. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [536K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.A. Hart, 2002: Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [125K PDF]

Edwards, R., G.V. Rao, and J.W. Scheck, 2000: Examination of Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclone Earl (1998) Using Conventional and WSR-88D Data Suites. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL [249K HTML]

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part II: An Independent Assessment of Supercell Forecast Parameters. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [87K HTML]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.G. LaDue, 2000: Initiation of Storm A (3 May 99) along a Possible Horizontal Convective Roll. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [158K HTML]

Edwards, R., 1999: Tornado Production During Exiting Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [103K HTML]

Edwards, R., 1999: Storm Prediction Center Support for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [38K HTML]

Edwards, R. and S.J. Weiss, 1996: Comparisons between Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Southern U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Frequency in the Cool Season. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [52K HTML]

Evans, J.S.*, C.M. Mead*, and S.J. Weiss, 2008: Forecasting the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak at the SPC: Why Forecast Uncertainty Does Not Necessarily Decrease as You Get Closer to a High Impact Weather Event. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [419K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of Cool Season Significant Tornado Events and Buoy Data in the Western Gulf of Mexico.Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [264K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and C.A. Doswell III, 2002: Investigating Derecho and Supercell Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [190K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and R.H. Johns*, 1996: Significant Tornadoes in the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [107K HTML]

Evenson, E.C.* and J.R. Mecikalski, 1996: Preliminary Evaluation of a PCGRIDDS Macro in Forecasting Dry Microbursts over the Western United States. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [48K HTML]

Goss, S.M., R.L. Thompson, and E. Bookbinder, 2006: An Elevated Supercell with Damaging Wind from the Morning of 12 March 2006. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [446 K PDF]

Guyer J.L. and A.R. Dean, 2015: Tornadoes Associated with an Absence of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, AP26. [659K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and I.L. Jirak, 2014: The Utility of Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts of Cool Season Severe Weather Events from the SPC Perspective. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [617K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and J.A. Hart, 2012: Examination of WSR-88D VWP Data in Proximity to Strong Tornadoes. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [320K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and A.R. Dean, 2010: Tornadoes within Weak CAPE Environments across the Continental United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and D.R. Bright*, 2008: Utility of Short-range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Guidance for Forecasting the Development of Severe Convection. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [353K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and J.M. Davies, 2006: Enviroment Characteristics Associated with Tornado Events near Closed Cold Core 500 MB Lows.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [199K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., D.A. Imy*, A. Kis*, and K. Venable, 2006: Cool Season Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States.Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [657K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and R. Ewald, 2004: Record Hail Event - Examination of the Aurora, Nebraska Supercell of 22 June 2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2012K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and T.J. Shea, 2003: An Assessment of the Variability in Operational Assignment of F-Scale Damage. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and M.L. Moritz, 2003: On Issues of Tornado Damage Assessment and F-Scale Assignment in Agricultural Areas.Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]

Hales, J.E. Jr.*, and M.D. Vescio*, 1996: The March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeast U.S. from an SPC Perspective Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA [55K HTML]

Harless, A.R., S.J. Weiss, R.S. Schneider, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: A Report and Feature-based Verification Study of the CAPS 2008 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts for Severe Convective Weather. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [933K PDF]

Hepper, R.M., I.L. Jirak, and J.M. Milne, 2016: Assessing the Skill of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Severe MCS Winds from the SSEO. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [942K PDF]

Jewell, R., 2010: The Sounding Analog Retrieval System (SARS). Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [274K PDF]

Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1162K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2016: Comparison of the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity to other Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [229K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., A.J. Clark, C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2016: Investigation of the Impact of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Size for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [407K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2015: Comparison of Convection-Allowing Ensembles during the 2015 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment.Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, AP-36. [314K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., M. Coniglio, A.J. Clark, J. Correia Jr., K.H. Knopfmeier, C.J. Melick, S.J. Weiss, J.S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, K.W. Thomas, K. Brewster, Y. Wang, Y. Jung, and S. Willington, 2014: An Overview of the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [1528K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2014: Combining Probabilistic Ensemble Information from the Environment with Simulated Storm Attributes to Generate Calibrated Probabilities of Severe Weather Hazards. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [864K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., S. J. Weiss, and C. J. Melick, 2012: The SPC Storm-scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN. [473K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick, A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss, and J. Correia Jr., 2012: Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [558K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., S.J. Weiss, C.J. Melick, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, A.J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the Performance and Distribution of Hourly Maximum Fields from Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [519K PDF]

Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: Nocturnal Tornadoes and Low-level Static Stability.Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [909K PDF]

Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: On the Role of Descending Rain Curtains in Tornadogenesis.Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [2619K PDF]

Kay, M. P.* and H.E. Brooks, 2000: Verification of Probabilistic Severe Storm Forecasts at the SPC. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [105K HTML]

Kumjian, M. *, J.S. Evans*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of the Great Plains Low Level Jet to Nocturnal MCS Development. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [289 K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, J.A. Hart, R.S. Schneider, D.R. Bright*, and R.L. Thompson, 2008: Utilizing Short-range Ensemble Point Forecast Soundings for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [94K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, G.W. Carbin*, D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, S.J. Weiss, R.S. Schneider, M.C. Coniglio, M. Xue, K.W. Thomas, M.E. Pyle, and M.L. Weisman, 2008: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment: Technical and Scientific Challenges of Creating a Data Visualization Environment for Storm-scale Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [195K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, V. Lakshmanan, K. Manross and R.S. Schneider, 2004: Integration of the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information into the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [60K PDF]

Line, W.E., 2016: Results from GOES-R and JPSS Proving Ground Demonstrations at the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2015 Spring ExperimentPreprints, 12th Ann. Symp. on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, New Orleans, LA., J9.7. [691K PDF]

Line, W.E., 2014: Results from the GOES-R Proving Ground Portion of the 2014 HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [613K PDF]

Lynn, R.J., * 2002: The WDSS-II Supercell Identification and Assessment Algorithm. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [124K PDF]

Lynn, R.J.*, and V. Lakshmanan, 2002: Virtual Radar Volumes: Creation, Algorithm Access, and Visualization. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [121K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, J.T. Schaefer*, and R. Edwards, 2006: What Are We Doing with (or to) the F-Scale?Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [170 KB PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and K.P. Tarp, 2005: Covering the Storm: Broadcasting from the NWS Storm Prediction Center and Other National Centers. Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 4.1. [21K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2005: 2004 Year in Tornadoes: What a Year It Was! Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 2.1. [179K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Trends over the Past 30 Years. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [218K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, 2003: NWS Tornado Surveys and the Impact on the National Tornado Database. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach, CA. [1735K PDF]

Mead, C.M.*, and R.L. Thompson, 2010: A Synoptic-scale Environment Associated with Significant Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Great Plains. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1047K PDF]

Melick, C.J., A.R. Dean, J.L. Guyer, and I.L. Jirak, 2016: Cloud Flash Lightning Characteristics for Tornadoes without Cloud-to-Ground Lightning. Preprints, 41st Nat. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Norfolk, VA, 11B. [563K PDF]

Melick, C.J., P.M. Marsh, A.R. Dean, I.L. Jirak, and S.J. Weiss, 2015: Lightning Characteristics and Relationship to Preliminary Local Storm Reports. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, 2454. [751K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr., A.R. Dean, and S.J. Weiss, 2014: Exploration of the NSSL Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) Product for Verifying Experimental Hail Forecasts in the 2014 Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [850K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr., A.R. Dean, and S.J. Weiss, 2013: Utility of Objective Verification Metrics during the 2013 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 38th NWA Ann. Meeting, Charleston, SC, Natl. Wea. Assoc. [1020K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, A.R. Dean, J. Correia Jr., and S.J. Weiss, 2012: Real Time Objective Verification of Convective Forecasts: 2012 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment. Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Madison, WI. [1102K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, S.J. Weiss, A.J. Clark, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: An Environmental Climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1891K PDF]

Miller, S.J. Jr.*, G.W. Carbin*, J.S. Kain, E.W. McCaul Jr., A.R. Dean, C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2010: Preliminary Investigation into Lightning Hazard Prediction from High Resolution Numerical Model Output. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [821K PDF]

Milne, J.M., H.E. Brooks, I.L. Jirak, and R.M. Hepper, 2016: Verification of 10-Meter Wind Forecasts from NSSL-WRF in Predicting Severe Wind-Producing MCSs. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1123K PDF]

Picca, J.C., J.C. Snyder, and A.V. Rhyzhkov, 2015: An Observational Analysis of ZDR Column Trends in Tornadic Supercells. Preprints, 37th Conf. Radar Meteorology, Norman, OK. [1060K PDF]

Racy, J.P.*, and J.A. Rogash*, 2002: The Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Flash Flood Event of 4-5 October 1998. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [219K PDF]

Rogers, J.W.*, R.L. Thompson, and P.T. Marsh, 2014: Potential Applications of a CONUS Sounding Climatology Developed at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [748K PDF]

Rogers, J.W.*, 2012: Significant Tornado Events with Cell Mergers. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]

Sankovitch, V.*, J.T. Schaefer* and J.J. Levit*, 2004: A Comparison of Rawinsonde Data from the Southeastern United States during El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Winters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [78K PDF]

Schaefer, J.T.*, J.J. Levit*, S.J. Weiss and D.W. McCarthy*, 2004: The Frequency of Large Hail over the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [2554K PDF]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and C. Marzban, 2000: Tornadoes in the United States as Related to the Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [126K HTML]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and R. Edwards, 1999: The SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Database. Preprints, 11th Conf. Applied Climatology, Dallas. [266K HTML]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and F.B. Tatom, 1998: The Relationship between El Nino, La Nina and United States Tornado Activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [154K HTML]

Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, and H.E. Brooks, 2009: Estimating Potential Severe Weather Societal Impacts Using Probabilistic Forecasts Issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., and A.R. Dean, 2008: A Comprehensive 5-year Severe Storm Environment Climatology for the Continental United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [556K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss, and P.D. Bothwell*, 2006: Analysis of Estimated Environments for 2004 and 2005 Severe Convective Storm Reports.Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [520K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., J.T. Schaefer*, and H.E. Brooks, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Days: An Updated and Expanded Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [232K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., H.E. Brooks and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Day Sequences: Historic Events and Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [586K PDF]

Smith, B.T., 2017: Utilization of the NWS Damage Assessment Tool for Future Tornado Database Development and Application. Preprints, 42nd Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Garden Grove, CA, D-1.1. [529K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, E.M. Leitman, J.S. Grams, A.E. Cohen*, A. Gleason, J.C. Picca, P.T. Marsh, R. Wagenmaker, and G. Mann, 2015: Developmental Work at the Storm Prediction Center in Pursuit of Tornadic Supercell Probability and Tornado Intensity Estimation Using a Severe Supercell Dataset. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, 8 pp. [669K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, P.T. Marsh, R. Wagenmaker, G. Mann, M.J. Hudson, and J.T. Ferree, 2014: Demonstrating the Utility of Conditional Probabilities of Tornado Damage Rating in the Impact-based Warning Era. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [2199K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, and A.R. Dean, 2014: The Storm Prediction Center Tornadic Storm and Environment Database: Development and Application. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [712K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, H.E. Brooks, A.R. Dean, and K.L. Elmore, 2012: Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Probabilities. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [4174K PDF]

Smith, B.T., A.C. Winters, C.M. Mead*, A.R. Dean, and T.E. Castellanos, 2010: Measured Severe Wind Gust Climatology of Thunderstorms for the Contiguous United States, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1653K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [2835K PDF]

Smith, B.T., J.L. Guyer and A.R. Dean, 2008: The Climatology, Convective Mode, and Mesoscale Environment of Cool Season Severe Thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, 1995-2006. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [292K PDF]

Taylor, S.J.*, D.R. Bright*, G.W. Carbin*, P.D. Bothwell*, and R.J. Naden*, 2003: Using Short Range Ensemble Model Data in National Fire Weather Outlooks. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Orlando FL. [111K PDF] (supplemental web page)

Taylor, S.J.*, and E.D. Howieson, 2001: A New Approach to Fire Weather Forecasting at the Tulsa WFO. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Reno NV. [215K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2012: Spatial Distributions of Tornadic Near-storm Environments by Convective Mode. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [5572K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Near-storm Environments with Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [388K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., J.S. Grams and J.A. Prentice, 2008: Synoptic Environments and Convective Modes Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [702K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., and C.M. Mead*, 2006: Tornado Failure Modes in Central and Southern Great Plains Severe Thunderstorm Episodes.Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [192K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., C.M. Mead*, and R. Edwards, 2004: Effective Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [258K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: Effective Storm-Relative Helicity in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [215K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: An Update to the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [134K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [170K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: An Assessment of Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters with RUC-2 Model Close Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [145K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, J.A. Hart and K.L. Elmore, 2002: RUC-2 Model Analysis Soundings as a Surrogate for Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [179K PDF]

Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: A Comparison of Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) Model Soundings with Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [71K HTML]

Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part I: An Examination of Storm-Relative Winds Normalized to Supercell Depth. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [195K HTML]

Thompson, R.L. and M.D. Vescio*, 1998: The Destruction Potential Index: A Method for Comparing Tornado Days. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [44K HTML]

Weiss, S.J., A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, C.J. Melick, C. Siewert, R.A. Sobash, P.T. Marsh, A.R. Dean, J.S. Kain, M. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, K.W. Thomas, J. Du, D.R. Novak, F. Barthold, M.J. Bodner, J.J. Levit, C.B. Entwistle, R.S. Schneider, and T.L. Jensen, 2010: An Overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [601K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., M.E. Pyle, Z. Janjic, D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, and G.J. DiMego, 2008: The Opertaional High Resolution Window WRF Model Runs at NCEP: Advantages of Multiple Model Runs for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [1058K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, J.J. Levit*, M.E. Pyle, Z.I. Janjic, B.S. Ferrier, and J. Du, 2006: Complementary Use of Short-range Ensemble and 4.5 KM WRF-NMM Model Guidance for Severe Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center.Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [443K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., J.S. Kain, J.J. Levit*, M.E. Baldwin, and D.R. Bright*, 2004: Examination of Several Different Versions of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [269K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., J.A. Hart and P.R. Janish*, 2002: An Examination of Severe Thunderstorm Wind Report Climatology: 1970-1999. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [218K PDF]

Wendt, N.A., I.L. Jirak, and C.J. Melick, 2016: Verification of Severe Weather Proxies from the NSSL-WRF for Hail Forecasting. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [6042K PDF]

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